Keep in mind we are still in ENSO NEUTRAL and I don’t expect an onset of the El Nino til’ fall so I would not really assume a below average season this year in the ATL yet. He will blog about local ATX weather and about the tropics! more enhanced wetter weather occurs compared to a regular Nino and colder weather. In addition, a westward shift of the Walker circulation is expected and that will help produce a nontraditional nino and a modoki style one instead. For areas like California , an Modoki style El Nino could be bad news as drought could begin. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account.
The current +NPMM/-SPMM would point to a warming of the Niño 3 and 4 regions (Central area), and a cooling off the Niño 1+2 region which is the E side. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Spread the page! El Niño and La Niña are terms which describe the biggest fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system and can have consequences across the globe. Follow me on Twitter! The warm waters release so much energy into the atmosphere that weather changes all across the globe. It stems from an eastward moving Kelvin wave. The opposite is true over the Eastern U.S., with cooler and wetter conditions than normal and cooler and wetter than a regular El Nino. However, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures boost eastern Pacific hurricanes, contributing to more-active tropical storm seasons. Change ). Follow Harry's Weather page on WordPress.com.
What is a Modoki El Nino? El Nino Modoki events are a rarer subset of regular El Nino’s, and are marked by warming water in the Pacific, but not along the Equator. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter.
In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). Also , two latitudinal PMM phases control different parts of the Niño regions. An El Nino typically places the Pacific Jet Stream further S and historically* brings cooler and wetter weather for the S. United States while drier warmer weather for the N. United States. This region is approximately 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) to the southeast of Hawaii. One area will get under a damaging drought while another will be flooded. Warming during a regular Nino is observed on the eastern side of the Pacific. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. An El Nino watch was issued just recently by the CPC.
So we have discussed El Nino. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. ‘La Niña’ is the term adopted for the opposite side of the fluctuation, which sees episodes of cooler-than-normal sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. Keep in mind the strength of an El Nino will vary the impacts too.
The fluctuation sees changes in the sea-surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean which occur every few years. Surface water temperatures off South America warm up, because there is less upwelling of the cold water from below to cool the surface. Within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, which stretches from the 120th to 170th meridians west longitude astride the equator five degrees of latitude on either side, are monitored. View all posts by harrywx. An El Niño creates stronger wind-shear and more-stable air over the Atlantic, which makes it harder for hurricanes to form. During an El Niño, the trade winds weaken in the central and western Pacific. – CPC. The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter [Fig. You can see the warming Sub-Surface anomalies over the past 3 weeks here as well which is a sign of a gradually developing Nino. IMO, 2009 is a good analog for this upcoming winter. Daily weather updates and tropical updates will be posted. The first thing you may notice is that the Western U.S. is much warmer and drier in a Modoki event than in a regular El Nino.
The thermocline depth, in the rightmost panel, is deeper than average. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. The name ‘El Niño’ nowadays is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.
( Log Out / Modoki is a Japanese word meaning "similar, but different." It should be noted that there is a reverse phenomena referred to as the La Niña Modoki, where the opposite SST anomalies are reversed - often it is referred to as ENSO Modoki. Modoki events involve cooler SST’s there and the warmer SST’S in the Central Pacific. The most recent three-month average for the area is computed, and if the region is more than 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) above (or below) normal for that period, then … ( Log Out / El Nino Modoki events are a rarer subset of regular El Nino’s, and are marked by warming water in the Pacific, but not along the Equator. Warming during a regular Nino is observed on the eastern side of the Pacific.
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